Search This Blog

8th Chase Day - Friday June 6, 2014

Start: Garden City, Kansas.

Northeastern New Mexico is where convection begins to initiate acc to models. There are 2 outflow boundaries (one that gave us that brief downpour this morning and the other are from dissipating cells to out north) that can provide lift and there is a stationary front over the area that can provide lift along with orographic lifting.
14z (9:00am CDT) Forecast Discussion for my forecast day - MCS passed south of Garden City, Kansas this morning. An out flow boundary from the MCD may cause some T’storms to flare up later today. LCL heights are forecasted to be low near Texas/ Oklahoma/ New Mexico panhandle, which is definitely good for tornadoes. The shear is over 50. RAP has no CIN but other models do have some. Moisture is definitely plentiful in the region. There will likely be some Orographic lifting in New Mexico. The HRRR is showing initiation starting from the mountains there. Due to the late start time we will head to Clayton NM, a 3 hour drive to out southwest.
14:20z (9:20am CDT) We leave the Sleep Inn in Garden City, KS and head south on 83 for Clayton, NM
16:01z (11:01am CDT) – We head west on 56
16:09z (11:09 pm CDT) – We are now in Oklahoma
16:41z (11:41am CDT) -  The skies are looking very overcast
17:14z (12:14pm CDT) – We enter New Mexico and switch into MDT.
Approx. 17:30z (11:30am MDT)- We reach our lunch spot in Clayton, NM – Si, Senor Taco.
18:32z (12:32pm  MDT) We leave lunch at Si, Señor tacos/ Dairy Queen after getting gas and head to City Park in Clayton.
18:55z (12:55pm MDT) We hear on our weather radio that a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued by the NWS in Albuquerque for a cell northwest of us in Colorado. It’s too far for us to chase, but we will definitely keep an eye on storms popping up closer to us.
19:29z (1:29pm MDT) We leave the park to watch a severe warned storm to our west.
19:34z (1:34pm MDT) As we head west we will watch an out flow boundary from the MCS that passed by earlier this morning with agitated cumulous to see if anything comes of it. This out flow boundary is still around because of a synoptic stationary front that has been around the area making the boundary more persistent.
19:53z (1:53pm MDT) A new thunderstorm warned cell has formed up to the north. Both are nearly stationary
20z (2:00pm MDT) The cell near Trinidad Colorado is now tornado warned with a confirmed tornado. If is moving southeast so we might be able to move with it eventually.
Our original cell is no longer severe warned.
20:07z (2:07pm MDT) We passed a dust devil
20:15z (2:15pm MDT) We stop at a junction in the road to reassess and decide if we should change our target cell.
20:23z (2:23pm MDT) We decide to abandon the cell we were chasing to our west and head up a dirt road north to Grenville to potentially catch the storm that is tornado warned up north. Cell signal is limited so I have not personally seen any of these cells.
20:27z (2:27pm MDT) The tornado warned cell to it north has had the tornado warning reissued a little to the northeast, now just east of Trinidad Colorado
20:35z (2:35pm MDT) We have stopped on a dirt road towards Grenville where cell signal is good enough to see radar and we can keep an eye on 3 cells to our west.

20:42z (2:42pm MDT) NWS in Alberquerque, NM has issued a tornado watch for our area.
20:45z (2:45pm MDT) The cells are moving very slowly and will be entering a very favorable environment for tornadoes. The storm near Wagonbarrow is looking good but we are not in a good position. The cell near maxwell is showing good shearing and the reflectivity has a bird shape to it, which is good!
20:49z (2:49pm MDT) The storm near Maxwell, NM has Lower dBZ on the last radar scan 20:45(2:45pm MDT) so it could be cycling.
20:53z (2:53pm MDT) we decide to head west to the maxwell storm until we all lose cell data as then we will consider moving east and south to potentially catch the cell further south in wheelbarrow
21z (3:00pm MDT) we can see mammatus clouds from wheelbarrow storm on one side, and dark clouds from maxwell storm on other side
21:05z (3:05pm MDT) we can see the base from the maxwell cell VIL is 60 and there are signs of rotation reflectivity is 65 dBZ

21:10z (3:10pm MDT) Strong couplet on radar near maxwell.
21:11z (3:11pm MDT) we can see a weak rain storm in between the wheelbarrow and Maxwell storm with some slight anti cyclonic rotation so it will be interesting to see how that interacts with the maxwell storm

21:15z (3:15pm MDT) we can see a faint lowering on the Maxwell cell which is something to watch
21:24z (3:24pm MDT) maxwell has been weakening on base reflectivity for past few radar scans. We can see scud on the storm though!
21:30z (3:30pm MDT) ob of 74/54
21:36z (3:36pm MDT) the maxwell storm still is not impressing me on radar in terms of precip. Base reflectivity is only a max of 57 dBZ. Wagon mound storm is higher precip but echo tops between the 2 are the same.
21:55z (3:55pm MDT) kestrel reading if 47.4 mph wind gust.
21:56z (3:56pm MDT) we leave our spot and head east to stay ahead. Power lines down. Very windy with some dust and tumbleweeds. The winds are out flow from the wagon mound storm to our south but a little inflo from the maxwell storm to the north. Out flow might hurt the maxwell storm

22:19z (4:19pm MDT) bases on maxwell cell seems more elevated, probably due to the colder air from the out flow from the wagon mound storm.
22:25z (4:25pm MDT) we spot a funnel cloud 15 miles away in colfax county. It returned to the cloud after a few minutes.
22:30z (4:30pm MDT) car pulls up to ask us what we are doing
22:35z (4:35pm MDT) Vil from maxwell is indicating that the storm is beginning to die. Storm to the south may take over
22:37z (4:37pm MDT) our telephone pole damage report made it to the nws!
22:39z (4:39pm MDT) our funnel cloud spotting was enough for a tornado warning to be issued!!!!!!!
22:42z (4:42pm MDT) our target cell has lowering Vil but that may be because fb attenuation from the 3 other cells between our target storm and the radar

22:57z (4:57pm MDT) a tornado warning issued for a cell to our south (west of Roy)

23:04z (5:04pm MDT) the maxwell cell is making a left turn indicating upper level clouds are  winning and the Vil is decreasing so the storm is decreasing. Looks this way visually as well
23:30z (5:30pm MDT) we leave the gas station and are quickly heading southeast on 87 towards dolly to avoid the growing MCS
23:33z (5:33pm MDT) the storms are moving too fast so we will go northwest towards Grenville to avoid then and then we plan on following the MCS towards Amarillo

0:11z (6:11pm MDT) we leave our spot outside of Clayton for viewing but all the tornadoes from this MCS are on the other side of the impressive rain/hail.
We are heading eat to Clayton for dinner and follow it behind the MCS to Amarillo, TX.
0:16z (6:16pm MDT) hail estimates up to 3 inches with this storm.
Approx 1:30z (7:30pm MDT) we have dinner at a Subway in Clayton where we stopped for dinner and head toward the hotel in Amarillo
Approx 2:20z (8:15pm MDT) we stop for a sunset picture.

The main issue with the storms today is that they were all on the outer edge of the radar so all velocities were much higher in altitude than they should be to see a tornado.
2:27z (8:27pm MDT) New Mexico route 402 8 miles north of Nara Visa is completely flooded. We must make a detour. We head back north on route 402 towards Clayton and then we will make a turn east onto 87.

4:00z (11pm CDT) We are now in Dalhart Texas.
4:45z (11:45pm CDT) We turn south onto 287 in Dumas, TX.
5:23z (12:23am CDT) We turn west onto 335 in the Amarillo, TX metro area and arrive at the Marriot shortly afterwards at approximately z(1am CDT)

Today was my team’s forecasting day and it was a perfect day to have a forecast because we finally saw a tornado! After the excitement from the gustnado we saw a few days back, I would have thought that I wouldn’t be able to contain myself if I saw an actual tornado. But when the tornado finally happened, I was pretty calm about it, probably because it was 15 miles away and we were not able to see the touchdown because of the hills in the foreground blocking the front of the funnel. Right after the funnel lifted, a group of kids drove up to us in there car and asked us what we were looking at. It was a pretty funny moment because all of us were so excited that the girl in the back of the car was videotaping us on her camera (she was trying to hide it but it was pretty obvious). I will be looking for that video on YouTube haha.

No comments:

Post a Comment